Annie Duke

What if the reason your investment decisions feel so hard isn't the market -- it's how you're wired to think about outcomes? Annie Duke spent years as a professional poker player winning over $4 million in tournaments, then devoted the next chapter of her career to understanding why smart people consistently make bad decisions. The answer has nothing to do with intelligence and everything to do with how we confuse results with quality. She brings the full framework down to the basement today. What You'll Walk Away With Why certainty is the enemy of good decision making -- and the mindset shift that makes uncertainty feel like an advantage instead of a threat The Pete Carroll problem: how tying the outcome of a decision to the quality of the decision is quietly wrecking how you evaluate your investments Why being smarter actually makes this bias worse -- and how intelligent people spin data to confirm what they already believe more effectively than anyone else The difference between wanting to be right and wanting to be accurate -- and why that single distinction changes everything about how you process new information How to hold your beliefs as "works in progress" rather than positions to defend -- and why that opens you up to information that actually improves your decisions Why the stock market's short-term volatility is almost never the signal investors treat it as -- and what a 40-year Berkshire Hathaway chart actually tells you The poker table parallel to long-term investing -- and why you can make all the right moves and still lose, which means a bad outcome never proves a bad decision What the Philly Special play reveals about how we reward boldness only when it works -- and what that tells you about how you judge your own financial choices A listener question on market-cap weighted index funds -- why the s and p is built the way it is and what you'd actually need to do to weight it differently The best personal finance and business books the crew is reading right now -- including picks from OG that go well beyond the usual recommendations Why This Matters Now For Stackers in their 40s watching a volatile market and second-guessing decisions that were perfectly sound six months ago, this episode is a direct intervention. The temptation to call a good decision bad because the market moved against you -- or to abandon a long-term strategy because of a short-term result -- is exactly the bias Annie Duke has spent her career studying. The framework she brings today doesn't just apply to poker. It applies to every financial decision you'll make for the rest of your life. From the Basement Annie Duke joins Joe and OG to walk through the decision-making framework behind her book Thinking in Bets -- including the Super Bowl story that reframes how most people evaluate every financial move they've ever made. The headline segment tackles parents spending six figures on kids' extracurriculars and what the trade-off actually looks like for retirement savings. Doug arrives with poker-themed trivia about the all-time tournament earnings leader, gets it mostly right, and declares victory anyway. Whether the basement poker tournament ended in anyone's favor is a matter of some dispute. Resources Mentioned Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke -- available wherever books are sold Annie Duke's website and weekly newsletter -- annieduke.com Annie Duke on Twitter -- @AnniedDuke The Truth About Money by Ric Edelman -- recommended by Joe Set for Life by Scott Trench -- recommended by Joe Broke Millennial by Erin Lowry -- recommended by Joe How to Be a Financial Grownup by Bobbi Rebell -- recommended by Joe The Behavior Gap and The One-Page Financial Plan by Carl Richards -- recommended by

In this episode of The Mentors Radio, Host Tom Loarie talks with Annie Duke , a world champion poker player and best-selling book author. We are all too familiar with the phrase “you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,” but how DO we know? How can we be sure ? Annie Duke is a decision-making expert, a cognitive science expert and a former professional poker player with a PhD in Cognitive Psychology who knows a think or two about high-stakes decisions. As the best-selling author of “ QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away ,” Annie challenges the stigma around quitting and reveals how mastering this skill can lead to greater success and fulfillment in work in life. Her contrarian point-of-view provides a compelling argument for the virtues of quitting. Listen to the show broadcast on Salem Radio in San Francisco, via live-streaming on iHeart Radio worldwide or anytime, on ANY podcast platform, including Apple Podcast, Spotify, iTunes, TuneIN, Stitcher, Google Play and all the others. Sign up for the podcast here . SHOW NOTES: ANNIE DUKE : BIO : https://www.annieduke.com/about/ WEBSITE : https://www.annieduke.com/ BOOKS : QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts , by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices , by Annie Duke

In this episode of The Mentors Radio, Host Tom Loarie talks with Annie Duke , a world champion poker player and best-selling book author. We are all too familiar with the phrase “you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,” but how DO we know? How can we be sure ? Annie Duke is a decision-making expert, a cognitive science expert and a former professional poker player with a PhD in Cognitive Psychology who knows a think or two about high-stakes decisions. As the best-selling author of “ QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away ,” Annie challenges the stigma around quitting and reveals how mastering this skill can lead to greater success and fulfillment in work in life. Her contrarian point-of-view provides a compelling argument for the virtues of quitting. Listen to the show broadcast on Salem Radio in San Francisco, via live-streaming on iHeart Radio worldwide or anytime, on ANY podcast platform, including Apple Podcast, Spotify, iTunes, TuneIN, Stitcher, Google Play and all the others. Sign up for the podcast here . SHOW NOTES: ANNIE DUKE : BIO : https://www.annieduke.com/about/ WEBSITE : https://www.annieduke.com/ BOOKS : QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts , by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices , by Annie Duke

In this episode of The Mentors Radio, Host Tom Loarie talks with Annie Duke , a world champion poker player and best-selling book author. We are all too familiar with the phrase “you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,” but how DO we know? How can we be sure ? Annie Duke is a decision-making expert, a cognitive science expert and a former professional poker player with a PhD in Cognitive Psychology who knows a think or two about high-stakes decisions. As the best-selling author of “ QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away ,” Annie challenges the stigma around quitting and reveals how mastering this skill can lead to greater success and fulfillment in work in life. Her contrarian point-of-view provides a compelling argument for the virtues of quitting. Listen to the show broadcast on Salem Radio in San Francisco, via live-streaming on iHeart Radio worldwide or anytime, on ANY podcast platform, including Apple Podcast, Spotify, iTunes, TuneIN, Stitcher, Google Play and all the others. Sign up for the podcast here . SHOW NOTES: ANNIE DUKE : BIO : https://www.annieduke.com/about/ WEBSITE : https://www.annieduke.com/ BOOKS : QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts , by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices , by Annie Duke

In this episode of The Mentors Radio, Host Tom Loarie talks with Annie Duke , a world champion poker player and best-selling book author. We are all too familiar with the phrase “you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,” but how DO we know? How can we be sure ? Annie Duke is a decision-making expert, a cognitive science expert and a former professional poker player with a PhD in Cognitive Psychology who knows a think or two about high-stakes decisions. As the best-selling author of “ QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away ,” Annie challenges the stigma around quitting and reveals how mastering this skill can lead to greater success and fulfillment in work in life. Her contrarian point-of-view provides a compelling argument for the virtues of quitting. Listen to the show broadcast on Salem Radio in San Francisco, via live-streaming on iHeart Radio worldwide or anytime, on ANY podcast platform, including Apple Podcast, Spotify, iTunes, TuneIN, Stitcher, Google Play and all the others. Sign up for the podcast here . SHOW NOTES: ANNIE DUKE : BIO : https://www.annieduke.com/about/ WEBSITE : https://www.annieduke.com/ BOOKS : QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts , by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices , by Annie Duke

In this episode of The Mentors Radio, Host Tom Loarie talks with Annie Duke , a world champion poker player and best-selling book author. We are all too familiar with the phrase “you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,” but how DO we know? How can we be sure ? Annie Duke is a decision-making expert, a cognitive science expert and a former professional poker player with a PhD in Cognitive Psychology who knows a think or two about high-stakes decisions. As the best-selling author of “ QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away ,” Annie challenges the stigma around quitting and reveals how mastering this skill can lead to greater success and fulfillment in work in life. Her contrarian point-of-view provides a compelling argument for the virtues of quitting. Listen to the show broadcast on Salem Radio in San Francisco, via live-streaming on iHeart Radio worldwide or anytime, on ANY podcast platform, including Apple Podcast, Spotify, iTunes, TuneIN, Stitcher, Google Play and all the others. Sign up for the podcast here . SHOW NOTES: ANNIE DUKE : BIO : https://www.annieduke.com/about/ WEBSITE : https://www.annieduke.com/ BOOKS : QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts , by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices , by Annie Duke

In this episode of The Mentors Radio, Host Tom Loarie talks with Annie Duke , a world champion poker player and best-selling book author. We are all too familiar with the phrase “you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,” but how DO we know? How can we be sure ? Annie Duke is a decision-making expert, a cognitive science expert and a former professional poker player with a PhD in Cognitive Psychology who knows a think or two about high-stakes decisions. As the best-selling author of “ QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away ,” Annie challenges the stigma around quitting and reveals how mastering this skill can lead to greater success and fulfillment in work in life. Her contrarian point-of-view provides a compelling argument for the virtues of quitting. Listen to the show broadcast on Salem Radio in San Francisco, via live-streaming on iHeart Radio worldwide or anytime, on ANY podcast platform, including Apple Podcast, Spotify, iTunes, TuneIN, Stitcher, Google Play and all the others. Sign up for the podcast here . SHOW NOTES: ANNIE DUKE : BIO : https://www.annieduke.com/about/ WEBSITE : https://www.annieduke.com/ BOOKS : QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts , by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices , by Annie Duke

In this episode of The Mentors Radio, Host Tom Loarie talks with Annie Duke , a world champion poker player and best-selling book author. We are all too familiar with the phrase “you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,” but how DO we know? How can we be sure ? Annie Duke is a decision-making expert, a cognitive science expert and a former professional poker player with a PhD in Cognitive Psychology who knows a think or two about high-stakes decisions. As the best-selling author of “ QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away ,” Annie challenges the stigma around quitting and reveals how mastering this skill can lead to greater success and fulfillment in work in life. Her contrarian point-of-view provides a compelling argument for the virtues of quitting. Listen to the show broadcast on Salem Radio in San Francisco, via live-streaming on iHeart Radio worldwide or anytime, on ANY podcast platform, including Apple Podcast, Spotify, iTunes, TuneIN, Stitcher, Google Play and all the others. Sign up for the podcast here . SHOW NOTES: ANNIE DUKE : BIO : https://www.annieduke.com/about/ WEBSITE : https://www.annieduke.com/ BOOKS : QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts , by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices , by Annie Duke

In this episode of The Mentors Radio, Host Tom Loarie talks with Annie Duke , a world champion poker player and best-selling book author. We are all too familiar with the phrase “you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,” but how DO we know? How can we be sure ? Annie Duke is a decision-making expert, a cognitive science expert and a former professional poker player with a PhD in Cognitive Psychology who knows a think or two about high-stakes decisions. As the best-selling author of “ QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away ,” Annie challenges the stigma around quitting and reveals how mastering this skill can lead to greater success and fulfillment in work in life. Her contrarian point-of-view provides a compelling argument for the virtues of quitting. Listen to the show broadcast on Salem Radio in San Francisco, via live-streaming on iHeart Radio worldwide or anytime, on ANY podcast platform, including Apple Podcast, Spotify, iTunes, TuneIN, Stitcher, Google Play and all the others. Sign up for the podcast here . SHOW NOTES: ANNIE DUKE : BIO : https://www.annieduke.com/about/ WEBSITE : https://www.annieduke.com/ BOOKS : QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts , by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices , by Annie Duke

In this episode of The Mentors Radio, Host Tom Loarie talks with Annie Duke , a world champion poker player and best-selling book author. We are all too familiar with the phrase “you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,” but how DO we know? How can we be sure ? Annie Duke is a decision-making expert, a cognitive science expert and a former professional poker player with a PhD in Cognitive Psychology who knows a think or two about high-stakes decisions. As the best-selling author of “ QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away ,” Annie challenges the stigma around quitting and reveals how mastering this skill can lead to greater success and fulfillment in work in life. Her contrarian point-of-view provides a compelling argument for the virtues of quitting. Listen to the show broadcast on Salem Radio in San Francisco, via live-streaming on iHeart Radio worldwide or anytime, on ANY podcast platform, including Apple Podcast, Spotify, iTunes, TuneIN, Stitcher, Google Play and all the others. Sign up for the podcast here . SHOW NOTES: ANNIE DUKE : BIO : https://www.annieduke.com/about/ WEBSITE : https://www.annieduke.com/ BOOKS : QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts , by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices , by Annie Duke

In this episode of The Mentors Radio, Host Tom Loarie talks with Annie Duke , a world champion poker player and best-selling book author. We are all too familiar with the phrase “you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,” but how DO we know? How can we be sure ? Annie Duke is a decision-making expert, a cognitive science expert and a former professional poker player with a PhD in Cognitive Psychology who knows a think or two about high-stakes decisions. As the best-selling author of “ QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away ,” Annie challenges the stigma around quitting and reveals how mastering this skill can lead to greater success and fulfillment in work in life. Her contrarian point-of-view provides a compelling argument for the virtues of quitting. Listen to the show broadcast on Salem Radio in San Francisco, via live-streaming on iHeart Radio worldwide or anytime, on ANY podcast platform, including Apple Podcast, Spotify, iTunes, TuneIN, Stitcher, Google Play and all the others. Sign up for the podcast here . SHOW NOTES: ANNIE DUKE : BIO : https://www.annieduke.com/about/ WEBSITE : https://www.annieduke.com/ BOOKS : QUIT: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts , by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices , by Annie Duke

In episode 402 of The Brainy Business podcast, Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and author of the book Quit, joins host Melina Palmer to discuss the psychology of quitting and decision-making under uncertainty. Annie's transition from an academic to a professional poker player and her subsequent work in decision science provide a unique and valuable perspective on the topic. Throughout the conversation, Annie challenges traditional perceptions of quitting and emphasizes its crucial role in winning and strategic decision-making. She introduces concepts such as pre-mortems and the mental model of monkeys and pedestals, offering practical tools and frameworks for making better decisions. The episode provides valuable insights into reframing the mindset around quitting, the importance of understanding when to quit, and the potential impact of decision education in various domains. Annie Duke's diverse background and expertise in decision science make this episode a must-listen for entrepreneurs and business owners seeking to enhance their strategic decision-making skills and achieve increased business success. In this episode: Discover the strategic benefits of quitting in business to unlock new opportunities and growth potential. Implement behavioral economics in your business to enhance decision-making and drive better outcomes. Learn how to strategically identify when to quit for long-term business success and resilience. Explore the Monkeys and Pedestals decision-making model for insightful strategies to improve decision-making processes. Overcome analysis paralysis and make decisive, effective decisions to propel your business forward. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction The episode introduces Annie Duke and her book Quit about the psychology of quitting and decision-making. 00:01:15 - The Importance of Quitting Annie explains how winners often say no and quit things to succeed, emphasizing the need to know what to stick with, what to quit, and when. 00:04:47 - Annie's Background and Transition Annie shares her journey from academia to professional poker and behavioral psychology, highlighting how her poker career led her back to her cognitive science roots. 00:08:40 - The Power of Diverse Perspectives Annie discusses the value of diverse experiences in decision-making and problem-solving, emphasizing the importance of different frames of thinking to bring unique insights to the table. 00:12:05 - The Pre Mortem Skepticism Annie shares her research on pre-mortems, expressing skepticism about their effectiveness as standalone decision tools and the need to combine them with other strategies for improving decision quality. 00:14:18 - Normalize Dissent and Prospective Hindsight Daniel Kahneman's advice on normalizing dissent allows for consideration of both good and bad outcomes. Prospective hindsight can generate 30% more reasons for failure or success. 00:15:19 - Pre Parade and Pre Mortem Tools Pre-mortem exercises influence confidence and introduce self-serving bias. The pre parade increases overconfidence, while the pre-mortem leads to attributing bad outcomes to external factors. 00:18:43 - Challenges in Behavior Change Difficulty in getting people to change plans despite pre-mortem insights. Anecdotal observations and studies show resistance to plan modifications across various domains, raising questions about the effectiveness of the exercise. 00:19:55 - Group Dynamics and Real-world Impact Need for group testing of pre-mortems to understand the impact of group dynamics. Potential for behavior change in high-stakes environments like work projects. Studies underway to explore these aspects in real-world scenarios. 00:22:23 - Thinking in Bets an