Aswath Damodaran

My guest today is Aswath Damodaran, a professor at NYU, where he teaches corporate finance and equity valuation. In today’s episode, Professor Damodaran explains why he trimmed two Magnificent Seven stocks. He digs into AI’s real impact on valuations and moats, why big software incumbents face an Innovator’s Dilemma, and why the biggest risk isn’t tech spending itself, but overconfidence and debt-fueled capex that could ripple beyond tech. He also weighs in on corporate Bitcoin balance sheets, sports franchises as “trophy assets” driven by billionaire demand rather than cash flows, and the rise of prediction markets. (0:00) Starts (0:34) Professor Damodaran on the Magnificent Seven (7:26) OpenAI's growth, AI's impact on valuations, and software industries (16:07) High capex investment risks (23:10) Market timing (33:43) Trust and the rise of gold and silver (45:12) Cryptocurrencies on company balance sheets (47:42) Sports franchises (52:27) Prediction markets ----- Follow Meb on X , LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp , Richard Thaler , Jeremy Grantham , Joel Greenblatt , Campbell Harvey , Ivy Zelman , Kathryn Kaminski , Jason Calacanis , Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran , <a href="https://mebf

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm In this deep-dive interview, NYU Finance Professor Aswath Damodaran, the "Dean of Valuation," assesses the current state of the U.S. stock market, describing the S&P 500 as richly priced but stopping short of calling it a bubble. He explores the "big market delusion" inherent in the AI revolution, distinguishing between the profitable "architecture" of chips and the highly speculative future of Large Language Models. Damodaran provides a candid look at his own portfolio, explaining why he recently exited his Nvidia position after a massive run while continuing to hold Microsoft. He offers a sharp critique of "lazy" valuation metrics like the P/E ratio, arguing that investors must instead focus on cash flows and the shift toward buybacks to understand market resilience . Furthermore, he warns that while AI will benefit consumers, the resulting competition may actually lead to lower profit margins for most companies collectively. Finally, the Professor touches on the role of gold as something that is viewed as an "insurance policy" in a world where institutional trust is rapidly eroding. Recorded on January 15, 2026. Aswath Damodaran’s YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/@AswathDamodaranonValuation Aswath Damodaran’s Website https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ Aswath Damodaran on X https://x.com/AswathDamodaran Aswath Damodaran on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/aswathdamodaran/ Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

In this episode of Excess Returns, Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation on valuation, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about risk, discipline, and opportunity in a market shaped by AI, market concentration, and rising uncertainty. Damodaran walks through how he builds and manages his own portfolio, why price matters more than story or quality, and how AI-driven capital spending could reshape margins and returns across the economy. The discussion blends practical investing frameworks with big-picture market insights, offering a clear look at how a valuation-driven investor navigates today’s environment. Main topics covered • How Aswath Damodaran builds a stock portfolio, including diversification, position sizing, and turnover • Why investing is about buying at the right price, not buying great companies • Using valuation frameworks to invest in young, unprofitable, and fast-growing companies • How stories and narratives fit into valuation without replacing financial discipline • Watchlists, patience, and waiting for price rather than chasing popular stocks • Sell discipline, overvaluation triggers, and avoiding emotional attachment to winners • Using probability distributions and simulations instead of single-point estimates • How company lifecycles affect growth, margins, and capital allocation decisions • Why many companies struggle as they age and how management quality shows up late in the lifecycle • AI as a capital cycle and why massive AI investment may lower margins overall • Why AI is likely to create a bubble, even if it delivers long-term economic value • Winners and losers in the AI value chain, from infrastructure to applications • Risks from AI infrastructure spending, debt, and cross-ownership structures • Why private markets may not deliver better outcomes for individual investors • How Damodaran thinks about cash, diversification, and assets uncorrelated with equities • Reentering markets after selling and avoiding the trap of staying in cash too long • Time horizon, legacy investing, and managing wealth across generations Timestamps 00:00 Investing is about price, valuation, and early thoughts on AI and market risk 01:54 Personal investing philosophy and why portfolios must be investor-specific 03:00 Diversification, number of holdings, and managing downside risk 05:00 Valuation frameworks and buying companies at the right price 06:00 Stories versus numbers and avoiding the circle of competence trap 08:20 Political risk and why some sectors are hard to value 08:47 Watchlists, patience, and waiting for price to meet value 11:43 When and why to sell stocks as a value investor 12:00 Using probability distributions and simulations in valuation 15:48 Sell discipline, fund flows, and separating skill from luck 18:00 Company lifecycles, aging businesses, and management discipline 23:18 Apple, Meta, and contrasting approaches to AI investment 24:08 AI bubbles, winner-take-all dynamics, and capital cycles 27:48 Infrastructure investing, debt risk, and societal spillovers 32:20 Cross-ownership risks and AI ecosystem fragility 35:00 AI’s impact on profit margins and competition 39:41 Where AI value may accrue over time 44:38 AI tools, valuation bots, and the rise of investment scams 49:17 Private markets, alternatives, and cost structures 53:05 Cash, collectibles, and diversification beyond equities 56:33 Reentering markets after selling and avoiding market timing traps 58:35 Time horizon, legacy investing, and generational wealth

​ Can a generalist provide a much broader view of the institutional markets and uncover things that so-called experts miss? Can the sins of Wall Street be traced back to a genuine lack of perspective and ineffective communication when a crisis arises? These are some of the questions and answers that we’ll uncover in our latest episode of the Improving Alpha podcast. ​ For this episode, we welcome Aswath Damodaran, Kerschner Family Chair and Finance Education Professor, NYU Stern . Aswath will take the audience through his perspectives on how to address some of the challenges posed by AI, including the Damdaran Bot, the ESG scam, the Mag 7, and more. Additional highlights include: Why those in active investing shouldn’t be concerned about the introduction of AI, and the threat that it could take this industry to the cleaners. The challenge of ESG and why those who write about it may be hiding an agenda to make it look better than what it actually is today. So what if there’s an AI bubble? Isn’t overconfidence and a high degree of optimism going to be corrected by the markets? Crypto currencies – are they a currency or collectible, and what perspectives should you take on them for 2026. The gaming of quarterly reporting and potential solutions for allocators paying attention to these reports. And more. Connect with Michael Oliver Weinberg: Michael Oliver Weinberg Vidrio Connect with Aswath Damodaran: LinkedIn: Aswath Damodaran Website: Aswath Damodaran Blog: Musings on Markets YouTube: Aswath Damodaran About Our Guest: Aswath Damodaran holds the Kerschner Family Chair in Finance Education and is Professor of Finance at New York University Stern School of Business. Before coming to Stern, he also lectured in Finance at the University of California, Berkeley. Professor Damodaran received a B.A. in Accounting from Madras University and a postgraduate diploma in Management from the Indian Institute of Management. He earned an M.B.A. (1981) and then Ph.D. (1985), both in Finance, from the University of California, Los Angeles. Professor Damodaran’s contributions to the fiel

How Aswath Damodaran Manages His Own Portfolio | Show Us Your Portfolio In this episode of our Show Us Your Portfolio series, we go inside the personal investing approach of Aswath Damodaran — the “Dean of Valuation.” Known for his expertise in corporate valuation, Aswath rarely discusses how he manages his own money. We cover his philosophy, asset allocation, position sizing rules, lifecycle diversification, and the lessons he’s learned from decades of investing his own wealth. What you’ll learn in this episode: The core mission that drives Aswath’s investing decisions How he thinks about risk, concentration, and position sizing Why he avoids bonds and focuses on equity appreciation His approach to strategic vs. tactical investing The role of lifecycle diversification in portfolio construction How he decides when to buy and sell individual stocks Why luck plays such a big role in investing results His views on international exposure, dividends, gold, crypto, and alternative assets Personal spending habits and what he values most outside of investing Timestamps: 00:00 – Investing’s end game: preserve and grow wealth 03:25 – How life stage changes investment approach 07:41 – Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio 08:47 – Why he holds no bonds 10:12 – The power of compounding 12:25 – Separating portfolio from income needs 15:02 – Strategic vs. tactical investing 18:00 – Managing concentration risk and trimming winners 20:30 – Market concentration & the Mag 7 25:31 – How he buys and sells stocks 32:46 – Hit rate and lessons from decades of investing 37:26 – Lifecycle diversification 41:00 – U.S. vs. international investing 43:22 – Dividend investing 45:35 – Gold, crypto, and alternative assets 53:15 – What he drives and his ESG take 54:39 – Spending for joy 56:00 – Key investing advice for individuals 57:37 – Life outside markets & creative thinking time

This is an episode of the Excess Returns Podcast with Matt Zeigler and me. We go over the highlights from our two interviews with Professor Aswath Damodaran. Lots of wisdom in one full hour, enjoy! Join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski as they play our favorite clips from both the Excess Returns and Talking Billions podcast interviews with Aswath Damodaran. This conversation unpacks Damodaran’s timeless insights on navigating uncertainty, embracing the process of investing, and finding comfort in a volatile market. From the ritualistic allure of the Berkshire Hathaway meeting to the pitfalls of factor investing, Main Topics Covered: The dangers of rigid, ritualistic value investing and the Berkshire Hathaway meeting’s cult-like atmosphere, contrasted with its networking value. Embracing uncertainty as a feature of investing, not a bug, and avoiding unhealthy coping mechanisms like denial or outsourcing. The limitations of factor investing, emphasizing the need to bring unique value to the table to achieve excess returns. The stock market as a reflection of real-world business value, not a place where money is made, and the futility of fighting market dynamics. The importance of loving the investing process over obsessing about beating the market, with diversification as a safeguard against hubris. Balancing comfort investments with high-risk, high-reward opportunities to build a resilient portfolio. The rise of passive investing and its potential to create opportunities for active investors as fewer people seek market mistakes. The "sleep test" for investors—framing choices with gratitude and perspective to maintain peace of mind. 00:00:00 – Introduction and Damodaran’s view on contempt in investing 00:01:00 – Matt and Bogumil introduce the episode and their admiration for Damodaran 00:03:00 – Why the Berkshire Hathaway meeting terrifies Damodaran 00:11:42 – Uncertainty as a feature, not a bug, in investing 00:21:02 – The shortcomings of factor investing and the need to bring value 00:31:01 – The market as the boss and the importance of staying detached 00:38:22 – Loving the investing process over beating the market 00:44:05 – Comfort investments vs. edge opportunities in portfolio construction 00:52:50 – Active investing as bad plumbing and the rise of passive investing 01:01:12 – The sleep test: Framing investments for peace of mind 01:06:48 – Closing remarks and where to find more from Bogumil and Matt Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC . All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Compared to Turkey, the United States is an ocean of stability. Aswath Damodaran teaches corporate finance and valuation at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Motley Fool Senior Analyst Matt Argersinger caught up with Damodaran for our Market Playbook Summit. They discuss: - How politics and investing have become intertwined. - Damodaran’s view on Mag7 valuations. - The role of taxes in deciding whether to buy or sell stocks. Motley Fool members can find replays from the entire event at live.fool.com. Companies discussed: TSLA, DIS, META, GOOG, GOOGL, NVDA, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT Host: Matt Argersinger Guest: Aswath Damodaran Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl, Chase Przylepa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest today is Professor Aswath Damodaran, who teaches corporate finance and valuation at the Stern School of Business at NYU. He says that he is a teacher first, who also happens to love untangling the puzzles of corporate finance and valuation, and writing about his experiences. He believes that businesses, education, publishing and financial services are all big, inefficiently run and deserve to be disrupted. He believes he may not have the power to change the status quo in any of the three, but he can stir the pot. Summary In this conversation, Professor Aswath Damodaran discusses his journey in corporate finance and valuation, reflecting on the lessons learned from financial crises and the importance of understanding the corporate life cycle. He emphasizes the unique characteristics of the U.S. startup ecosystem, the significance of management styles at different stages of a company's life, and the evolving nature of ownership in businesses. The discussion highlights the need for investors to adapt their strategies based on the life cycle of companies and the importance of recognizing uncertainty as a feature of investing. In this conversation, Professor Damodaran discusses various themes related to investing, including the shifting investor base, the role of founders, lessons from family businesses, the balance between survival and thriving, and the complexities of investment quality versus management quality. He emphasizes the importance of comfort investments, the need to embrace uncertainty, and the broader definition of success that goes beyond mere wealth accumulation. https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/ Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC . All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

JJ reacts to an interview with Aswath Damodaran, “The Dean of Valuation” and NYU Stern School of Business professor of finance, who discusses the recent Nvidia earnings and valuation. Had “the AI trade:, as Professor Damodaran puts it, now overreached? Related videos: Aswath Damodaran: Greatest Cash Machine IN HISTORY, But... https://youtu.be/IVsYx4evKvU Aswath Damodaran: This Stock Is A BETTER BUY Than Nvidia https://youtu.be/Ri7l6lXbOqo Aswath Damodaran: Nvidia Stock “Priced To The Point of Insanity” https://youtu.be/DCI9iQC_hvs Referenced video: CNBC Television: Test for AI product service market is 'whether people are willing to pay': NYU's Aswath Damodaran https://youtu.be/GSN1olXDhZY Get 15% discount on a FinChat subscription now (referral link) https://finchat.io/?via=stockchatshow Join The Art of Value Patreon community: https://www.patreon.com/TheArtofValue Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser and nothing in this content is financial advice. This content is for general education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In today’s episode, Shawn O’Malley ( @Shawn_OMalley_ ) discusses how companies can age just like people, how to define and understand the corporate life cycle, why the corporate decline phase is both inevitable and almost always poorly managed, how to invest across the corporate life cycle, plus so much more from studying Aswath Damodaran and recent research from Michael Mauboussin & Dan Callahan of Morgan Stanley. Aswath Damodaran is a renowned professor of finance at NYU who recently published a book on corporate life cycles. Shawn pulls from Aswath and other sources in painting an actionable picture of the corporate life cycle and how it affects investors while also diving into case studies on three aging companies: Intel, Walgreens, and Starbucks. Prefer to watch? Click here to watch this episode on YouTube. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN 00:00 - Intro 02:18 - Why companies age 07:37 - What the corporate life cycle looks like 18:03 - How companies can age gracefully (and why most don’t) 23:35 - How Intel, Walgreens, and Starbucks face different and similar challenges of aging 29:23 - Which declining stock Aswath Damodaran is investing in 34:31 - Investing strategies based on the corporate life cycle 36:59 - Why it’s important to diversify across the corporate life cycle 43:19 - Why younger companies carry more duration risk And much, much more! *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members. Clay Finck’s interview with Aswath Damodaran on We Study Billionaires | YouTube Video . Morgan Stanley’s paper on stages of the corporate life cycle. Damodaran’s free online course about the corporate life cycle. Book: The Corporate Lifecycle by Aswath Damodaran. Book: The Little Book of Valuation b

In The Corporate Life Cycle: Business, Investment, and Management Implications , Aswath Damodaran presents the corporate life cycle as a universal key for demystifying business finance, strategy and company valuation. Damodaran is a professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Known as “the Dean of Valuation,” he has published extensively in academic journals, written many books for students and practitioners, and remains the world’s foremost expert on the subject of corporate valuation. In his latest book, he outlines how corporations age, describes the characteristics of each stage of their life cycle, and discusses implications for managers and investors. In his conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Damodaran outlines how to determine where in the life cycle your company is at, what leadership skills and behaviors are required at each stage, and how the distribution of life cycle stages has changed over recent decades. Key topics discussed: 00:56 | The stages of the corporate life cycle 02:21 | How to determine your stage in the life cycle 03:36 | The importance of acting your age 10:06 | Balancing capital allocation across the portfolio 11:27 | Leadership skills for different stages in the life cycle 16:56 | Creating value at any stage of the life cycle 20:21 | How the distribution of life cycle “shapes” is changing 22:58 | The art of communicating complex ideas in simple ways Additional inspirations from Aswath Damodaran: Applied Corporate Finance (Wiley, 2014) Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset (Wiley, 2012) Musings on Markets (Blog)

I react to a recent interview with Prof. Aswath Damodaran from NYU, Wall Street’s “Dean of Valuation", who discusses Apple stock (AAPL). Could Apple’s iPhone business be running out of juice? Damodaran acknowledges the Apple has been the greatest cash machine in history, but what about Apple as a future growth stock? Related videos: Aswath Damodaran: This Stock Is A BETTER BUY Than Nvidia https://youtu.be/Ri7l6lXbOqo Aswath Damodaran: Nvidia Stock “Priced To The Point of Insanity” https://youtu.be/DCI9iQC_hvs Aswath Damodaran: ‘I’m Letting These Stocks Ride’ https://youtu.be/QAt_OrfbpbM Referenced video: CNBC: The smartphone business seems to be running out of juice, says NYU's Aswath Damodaran https://youtu.be/LYP1ezGPUXk Sharesight is my recommended portfolio tracking and reporting tool. See the special offer (referral link): https://sharesightlimited.cmail20.com/t/r-l-tdjhzjk-niuxvol-i/ Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser and nothing in this content is financial advice. This content is for general education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision