Nate Silver

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't (Nate Silver) - Amazon Sweden Store: https://www.amazon.se/dp/0143125087?tag=9natreesweden-21 - Amazon Worldwide Store: https://global.buys.trade/The-Signal-and-the-Noise%3A-Why-So-Many-Predictions-Fail--but-Some-Don%27t-Nate-Silver.html - eBay: https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=The+Signal+and+the+Noise+Why+So+Many+Predictions+Fail+but+Some+Don+t+Nate+Silver+&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&siteid=0&campid=5339060787&customid=9natree&toolid=10001&mkevt=1 - Läs mer: https://swedish.top/read/0143125087/ #prognoser #sannolikhet #statistik #bayesianskmetod #riskbedömning #TheSignalandtheNoise Det här är de viktigaste lärdomarna från den här boken. För det första, Signal kontra brus i en informationsrik värld, En kärnidé i boken är skillnaden mellan signal och brus: signalen är den del av informationen som faktiskt säger något om verkligheten, medan bruset är slump, felkällor och missvisande mönster som råkar se meningsfulla ut. Silver beskriver hur dagens överflöd av data och nyheter gör oss mer benägna att förväxla bruset med signal, särskilt när vi söker snabba svar och tydliga förklaringar. Han visar att fler datapunkter inte automatiskt ger bättre förståelse, eftersom varje mätning kan bära på bias, urvalsfel eller metodproblem. Ett centralt budskap är att man måste bedöma datans kvalitet, inte bara mängden. För läsaren blir detta ett praktiskt ramverk: fråga vad som faktiskt mäts, hur det mäts, och vilka alternativa förklaringar som kan finnas. Genom att tänka i termer av signal och brus tränas man att stå emot starka rubriker, förenklade tolkningar och falsk precision. Det leder till mer realistiska förväntningar och bättre beslut, även när framtiden är genuint osäker. För det andra, Sannolikhetstänkande och varför överdriven säkerhet är farlig, Boken betonar att bra prognoser sällan är tvärsäkra utsagor, utan uttrycks som sannolikheter. Silver kritiserar hur människor ofta vill ha ja eller nej, trots att de flesta viktiga frågor handlar om grader av osäkerhet. Genom att resonera i sannolikheter blir det möjligt att jämföra scenarier, väga risk och undvika att göra en enskild gissning till en identitet. Ett återkommande tema är övermod: experter och institutioner kan låta övertygande men underskattar ofta vad de inte vet. När prognoser sedan slår fel skylls det på otur, i stället för brister i modell eller antaganden. Silver förespråkar kalibrering, att ens uttryckta sannolikheter över tid ska matcha utfallet. Om man ofta säger 70 procents chans bör ungefär sju av tio sådana händelser inträffa. Detta blir en disciplin som gör tänkandet mer ärligt. För läsaren innebär det en konkret livsfärdighet: att ersätta kategoriska påståenden med välgrundade sannolikheter, att planera för flera utfall och att bli mindre sårbar för självsäkra men opålitliga förutsägelser. För det tredje, Bayesianskt uppdaterande som motor för bättre prognoser, Silver lyfter fram en bayesiansk idé i praktiken: börja med en rimlig grunduppfattning och uppdatera den när ny information kommer. I stället för att göra en prognos en gång och sedan försvara den, bör man se prognoser som levande hypoteser. Ny data förändrar hur sannolikt ett scenario är, men hur mycket man ska uppdatera beror på källans kvalitet och hur stark signalen är. Detta angreppssätt hjälper också mot två vanliga fel: att överreagera på nyheter och att ignorera tydliga varningssignaler. Genom att väga in tidigare erfarenhet och basfrekvenser kan man undvika att enskilda observationer får för stor betydelse. Silver kopplar detta till hur modeller kan bli bättre över tid, eftersom missar används för att justera antaganden. För läsaren blir bayesianskt tänkande ett verktyg för vardag och arbete: att fatta beslut under osäkerhet, att ompröva ståndpunkter utan prestige och att skapa en kultur där det är normalt att

On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything (Nate Silver) - Amazon Sweden Store: https://www.amazon.se/dp/0593833325?tag=9natreesweden-21 - Amazon Worldwide Store: https://global.buys.trade/On-the-Edge%3A-The-Art-of-Risking-Everything-Nate-Silver.html - eBay: https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=On+the+Edge+The+Art+of+Risking+Everything+Nate+Silver+&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&siteid=0&campid=5339060787&customid=9natree&toolid=10001&mkevt=1 - Läs mer: https://swedish.top/read/0593833325/ #risktagande #sannolikheter #beslutsfattande #osäkerhet #incitament #kalibrering #riskhantering #OntheEdge Det här är de viktigaste lärdomarna från den här boken. För det första, Risk som system: incitament, information och spelplaner, En central idé i boken är att risk inte bara är en personlig egenskap utan en produkt av system. Silver belyser hur regler, belöningsstrukturer och informationsflöden skapar spelplaner där vissa strategier blir logiska. I miljöer med tydliga odds, snabb återkoppling och mätbara resultat tenderar aktörer att utveckla mer probabilistiskt tänkande. I andra sammanhang, där återkopplingen är långsam och utfallet påverkas av många dolda faktorer, uppstår större utrymme för övermod och efterhandskonstruktioner. Genom att flytta fokus från individens mod eller dumdristighet till själva strukturen blir det lättare att förstå varför samma person kan agera konservativt i ett område och extremt offensivt i ett annat. Detta perspektiv hjälper läsaren att analysera sin egen vardag: vilka incitament belönas på jobbet, vilka risker är osynliga, och vilka resultat är egentligen ett mått på skicklighet snarare än tur. Poängen är att bättre beslut ofta börjar med att förstå spelets regler och hur de formar beteenden. För det andra, Sannolikhetstänkande och kalibrering under osäkerhet, Silver återkommer till skillnaden mellan att ha en åsikt och att ha en välkalibrerad bedömning. Sannolikhetstänkande handlar inte om att gissa rätt varje gång, utan om att vara lagom säker och justera när ny information kommer. Boken visar varför människor ofta blandar ihop berättelselogik med statistisk logik: vi dras till tydliga förklaringar, men världen levererar ofta brusiga data och resultat som påverkas av slump. Därför betonas vikten av att uttrycka osäkerhet, jämföra alternativ i termer av risk och förväntat värde och att uppdatera sina antaganden stegvis. Ett praktiskt spår i resonemanget är att se hur prognoser och strategier bör testas mot verkligheten över tid. Om man ofta är säker men har fel tyder det på övermod. Om man sällan vågar vara säker kan man missa möjligheter. Genom att analysera hur experter och beslutsfattare kan förbättra sin kalibrering blir boken en vägledning i att fatta beslut när informationen är ofullständig, och i att kommunicera risk på ett mer ärligt och användbart sätt. För det tredje, Höga insatser och asymmetrier: när uppsidan dominerar nedsidan, Ett återkommande tema är att alla risker inte är lika. Silver diskuterar hur beslut förändras när utfallet är asymmetriskt, exempelvis när nedsidan är begränsad men uppsidan potentiellt enorm, eller tvärtom. I sådana lägen räcker det inte med att fråga om något är riskfyllt, man måste fråga vilken typ av risk det är. Strategier som ser extrema ut kan vara rationella om de är konstruerade för att överleva negativa utfall och samtidigt behålla exponering mot stora vinster. Boken hjälper läsaren att skilja mellan beräknat risktagande och ren hazard, där sannolikheter ignoreras och där man litar på tur eller karisma. Den betonar också tidsaspekten: även en bra strategi kan misslyckas på kort sikt, och en dålig strategi kan se briljant ut under en lyckosam period. Därför blir riskhantering, diversifiering och förståelse för varians avgörande. För läsaren kan detta översättas till hur man utformar karriärval, investeringar eller projekt så att man inte bara jagar st

Nate Silver of Silver Bulletin knows a little bit about risk and prediction. He joins Dunc’d On to discuss every aspect of this evolving issue. How much should NBA fans care about this scandal? How much does he care as an NBA fan and bettor? Should we be concerned about the overall integrity of NBA games? Why would multi-millionaires like Terry Rozier or Chauncey Billups engage in the alleged behavior? Plus, how should the NBA fix these problems? Join Dunc’d On Prime! It's the only place to get every episode with Nate & Danny, plus every pod with John Hollinger & Nate as well! Use code PRESEASON25 for 35% off an annual subscription! Subscribe on YouTube to see our hilarious faces and, more importantly, see watch this free pod twice a week. Or, sign up for our FREE mailing list to get Dan Feldman's Daily Duncs with all the major topics around the league twice a week. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations in Silver's model 30:51: 50-50 election forecasts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here: https://partiful.com/e/tgYHaoevQ78X7hpnDUHA

Trump won, Silicon Valley is Moneyballing everything, and the worldview of the most famous political nerd on Earth... is eating the world. But Nate Silver still wants to prove people wrong: on what the 2016 and 2024 elections really told us; his falling out with the Left; and how tech billionaires are more irrational than they like to admit. Also: Elon Musk totaling a car, Peter Thiel believing in destiny, and Neymar playing poker. Buy Nate Silver's new book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/ Subscribe to Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rob Wiblin speaks with FiveThirtyEight election forecaster and author Nate Silver about his new book: On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything . Links to learn more, highlights, video, and full transcript. On the Edge explores a cultural grouping Nate dubs “the River” — made up of people who are analytical, competitive, quantitatively minded, risk-taking, and willing to be contrarian. It’s a tendency he considers himself a part of, and the River has been doing well for itself in recent decades — gaining cultural influence through success in finance, technology, gambling, philanthropy, and politics, among other pursuits. But on Nate’s telling, it’s a group particularly vulnerable to oversimplification and hubris. Where Riverians’ ability to calculate the “expected value” of actions isn’t as good as they believe, their poorly calculated bets can leave a trail of destruction — aptly demonstrated by Nate’s discussion of the extended time he spent with FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried before and after his downfall. Given this show’s focus on the world’s most pressing problems and how to solve them, we narrow in on Nate’s discussion of effective altruism (EA), which has been little covered elsewhere. Nate met many leaders and members of the EA community in researching the book and has watched its evolution online for many years. Effective altruism is the River style of doing good, because of its willingness to buck both fashion and common sense — making its giving decisions based on mathematical calculations and analytical arguments with the goal of maximising an outcome. Nate sees a lot to admire in this, but the book paints a mixed picture in which effective altruism is arguably too trusting, too utilitarian, too selfless, and too reckless at some times, while too image-conscious at others. But while everything has arguable weaknesses, could Nate actually do any better in practice? We ask him: How would Nate spend $10 billion differently than today’s philanthropists influenced by EA? Is anyone else competitive with EA in terms of impact per dollar? Does he have any big disagreements with 80,000 Hours’ advice on how to have impact? Is EA too big a tent to function? What global problems could EA be ignoring? Should EA be more willing to court controversy? Does EA’s niceness leave it vulnerable to exploitation? What moral philosophy would he have modelled EA on? Rob and Nate also talk about: Nate’s theory of Sam Bankman-Fried’s psychology. Whether we had to “raise or fold” on COVID. Whether Sam Altman and Sam Bankman-Fried are structurally similar cases or not. “Winners’ tilt.” Whether it’s selfish to slow down AI progress. The ridiculous 13 Keys to the White House. Whether prediction markets are now overrated. Whether venture capitalists talk a big talk about risk while pushing all the risk off onto the entrepreneurs they fund. And plenty more. Chapters: Cold open (00:00:00) Rob's intro (00:01:03) The interview begins (00:03:08) Sam Bankman-Fried and trust in the effective altruism community (00:04:09) Expected value (00:19:06) Similarities and differences between Sam Altman and SBF (00:24:45) How would Nate do EA differently? (00:31:54) Reservations about utilitarianism (00:44:37) Game theory equilibrium (00:48:51) Differences between EA culture and rationalist culture (00:52:55) What would Nate do with $10 billion to donate? (00:57:07) COVID strategies and tradeoffs (01:06:52) Is it selfish to slow down AI progress? (01:10:02) Dem

A Note from James:"Are you a member of the river or the village? That's the question we're diving into today. Nate Silver-yes, the Nate Silver from 538-joins us with Maria Konnikova, a master of poker and decision-making. Members of the 'river,' as Nate describes, are rational thinkers. They make decisions based on probabilities and data, not emotions. So, are you in the river or the village? Because today, we're talking about how to think differently about risk-whether it's betting on an election, making an investment, or even figuring out how to navigate life. Here's what you need to know."Episode Description:In this episode, James Altucher brings together two brilliant minds: Nate Silver, known for his predictive prowess, and Maria Konnikova, a renowned psychologist and poker player. The trio delves into how they make calculated decisions when the stakes are high. With examples from poker, elections, and everyday life, they discuss how we can all navigate a world full of uncertainty. What does it mean to be a rational thinker? And how can understanding probabilities make you a better decision-maker? Join them as they explore strategies for improving your risk assessment, leveraging data, and making choices that keep you in the game longer.What You'll Learn:Risk Assessment Tools: How to analyze risk effectively using concepts from poker and data science.The River vs. The Village: Are you making rational decisions, or are you just playing it safe? Find out how to challenge your instincts.Understanding Probabilities: How to apply probabilistic thinking to everyday situations, from career moves to investments.Avoiding Cognitive Traps: Learn about common mental biases that can lead to poor decisions and how to overcome them.Betting on Your Choices: Practical advice on evaluating your options to maximize the chances of success.Timestamped Chapters:[01:30] - Are You a Member of the River or the Village?[03:21] - Meet the Guests: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova[10:09] - Maria's Journey into Poker and Game Theory[14:59] - Understanding Risk and Decision Making[27:55] - The Challenge of Trust and Information in the Digital Age[31:04] - Nate's Transition from Poker to Election Forecasting[42:37] - The Evolution of Poker Strategy[54:15] - Betting Markets and Inefficiencies[1:00:58] - Decision Making and Risk in Poker and LifeAdditional Resources:Maria Konnikova's Book: The Biggest BluffNate Silver's Newsletter: The Silver BulletinMaria Konnikova's Newsletter: The LeapNate Silver's Book: On the EdgePodcast: Risky Business with Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to "The James Altucher Show" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn

Nate Silver is a statistician, writer of Silver Bulletin, and Founder of FiveThirtyEight. No one truly knows who will win an election, but if anyone does, it's Nate. He is the man behind the most accurate, sophisticated polling data assessments in America and has an insight into modern culture like no one else. Expect to learn why this election cycle differs from other ones, just how complex election prediction models are, what the most important topics of this election are, whether there is ever a chance for a 3rd party option to become president, the role of the media in determining who wins and much more… Sponsors: See discounts for all the products I use and recommend: https://chriswillx.com/deals Get $350 off the Pod 4 Ultra at https://eightsleep.com/modernwisdom (use code MODERNWISDOM) Get the Whoop 4.0 for free and get your first month for free at https://join.whoop.com/modernwisdom (automatically applied at checkout) Get a 20% discount on Nomatic’s amazing luggage at https://nomatic.com/modernwisdom (automatically applied at checkout) Extra Stuff: Get my free reading list of 100 books to read before you die: https://chriswillx.com/books Try my productivity energy drink Neutonic: https://neutonic.com/modernwisdom Nate's Newsletter - Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/ Episodes You Might Enjoy: #577 - David Goggins - This Is How To Master Your Life: https://tinyurl.com/43hv6y59 #712 - Dr Jordan Peterson - How To Destroy Your Negative Beliefs: https://tinyurl.com/2rtz7avf #700 - Dr Andrew Huberman - The Secret Tools To Hack Your Brain: https://tinyurl.com/3ccn5vkp - Get In Touch: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact - Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Every career involves choices; every choice involves risk. But being able to size up those risks, and think coolly about which are worth taking, can make the process of choosing between options much easier. The problem? Most of us aren’t actually very good at evaluating risk. In this episode, Isabel Berwick speaks to statistician, writer and sometime poker player Nate Silver to find out how we can take better risks in our careers. Silver, founder of analysis website FiveThirtyEight and author of the new book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything ’ explains why fear plays an outsize risk in our decision making, how to recover when a bet doesn’t pan out and why your 60s might not be the time to avoid risk. Want more? Free links: On the Edge by Nate Silver — the risk-takers who beat the market We need to be better at predicting bad outcomes Interview with Nate Silver Presented by Isabel Berwick, produced by Mischa Frankl-Duval, mixed by Simon Panayi. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s head of audio. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nate Silver is an American statistician, poker player, and New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- but Some Don't . Nate’s latest book is On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything , where he dives into the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and more. These professional high risk-takers fall into the group that Nate describes as “The River”, a community of people that have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society. Nate came to the Daily Stoic studio to talk with Ryan about incentives in large media corporations with independent media, ethical challenges of audience capture, financial motives in journalism, conflicts between truth-seeking and profitability, the dynamics of tech versus traditional media, effective altruism, and much more. Nate is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and The Noise . 📚 Grab a signed copy of On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver| https://www.thepaintedporch.com/ Subscribe to Nate Silver’s Substack: Silver Bulletin Connect with Nate Silver on X: @NateSilver538 🎟 Ryan Holiday is going on tour! Grab tickets for London, Rotterdam, Dublin, Vancouver, and Toronto at ryanholiday.net/tour ✉️ Want Stoic wisdom delivered to your inbox daily? Sign up for the FREE Daily Stoic email at https://dailystoic.com/dailyemail 🏛 Get Stoic inspired books, medallions, and prints to remember these lessons at the Daily Stoic Store: https://store.dailystoic.com/ 📱 Follow us: Instagram , Twitter , YouTube , TikTok , and Facebook See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info .

Labor Day is a critical mile-marker on the road to the general election, now just two months away. Pollsters are busy processing data and making predictions, but nobody really knows whether America will end up with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the White House. Nate Silver is one of America's most well-respected pollsters. The former poker player set up FiveThirtyEight, a polling company and now writes the Silver Bullet on Substack. Nate Silver's latest book On the Edge: the Art of Risking Everything takes a look at two mindsets: the River and the Village. Nate joins Freddy Gray on the Americano show to discuss probability in sport and politics, how luck is often undervalued in politics, whether VP picks are an key decision in general elections and why J.D. Vance may be a bad choice for Trump.

Labor Day is a critical mile-marker on the road to the general election, now just two months away. Pollsters are busy processing data and making predictions, but nobody really knows whether America will end up with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the White House. Nate Silver is one of America's most well-respected pollsters. The former poker player set up FiveThirtyEight, a polling company and now writes the Silver Bullet on Substack. Nate Silver's latest book On the Edge: the Art of Risking Everything takes a look at two mindsets: the River and the Village. Nate joins Freddy Gray on the Americano show to discuss probability in sport and politics, how luck is often undervalued in politics, whether VP picks are an key decision in general elections and why J.D. Vance may be a bad choice for Trump. Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more. For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts . Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.