Nate SilverEvery podcast appearance, updated as new ones drop

(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod! (10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India (25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base (34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems (45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed (50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard (55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC Thanks to our partners! Northwest Registered Agent — Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE PLAUD — If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at Plaud.ai/allin and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: https://amzn.to/43URLff (Code: ALLIN20X) Follow Nate: https://x.com/NateSilver538 Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

View full lesson: http://ed.ted.com/lessons/does-racism-affect-how-you-vote-nate-silver Nate Silver has data that answers big questions about race in politics. For instance, in the 2008 presidential race, did Obama's skin color actually keep him from getting votes in some parts of the country? Stats and myths collide in this fascinating talk that ends with a remarkable insight. Talk by Nate Silver. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nate Silver of Silver Bulletin knows a little bit about risk and prediction. He joins Dunc’d On to discuss every aspect of this evolving issue. How much should NBA fans care about this scandal? How much does he care as an NBA fan and bettor? Should we be concerned about the overall integrity of NBA games? Why would multi-millionaires like Terry Rozier or Chauncey Billups engage in the alleged behavior? Plus, how should the NBA fix these problems? Join Dunc’d On Prime! It's the only place to get every episode with Nate & Danny, plus every pod with John Hollinger & Nate as well! Use code PRESEASON25 for 35% off an annual subscription! Subscribe on YouTube to see our hilarious faces and, more importantly, see watch this free pod twice a week. Or, sign up for our FREE mailing list to get Dan Feldman's Daily Duncs with all the major topics around the league twice a week. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Nate Silver writes Silver Bulletin and is the author of On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything , now in paperback with a new foreword. In today’s conversation, we discuss… Honesty, reputation, and paying the bills with writing, Impact scenarios for the AI future, including how AI could impact elections and political decision-making, The emerging synergy between prediction markets and journalism, and how Nate would build a team of professional Polymarket traders, How to build a legacy, and strategies for balancing long-form and short-form projects, Nate’s hypothetical plan to reform US institutions, and how that compares with real-world prospects for creating political change over the long term. Outro Music: 動物園釘子戶 (Zoo Gazer) - 大大大大大象 ( YouTube Link ) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In his third appearance on Conversations with Tyler, Nate Silver looks back at past predictions, weighs how academic ideas such as expected utility theory fare in practice, and examines the world of sports through the lens of risk and prediction. Tyler and Nate dive into expected utility theory and random Nash equilibria in poker, whether Silver's tell-reading abilities transfer to real-world situations like NBA games, why academic writing has disappointed him, his move from atheism to agnosticism, the meta-rationality of risk-taking, electoral systems and their flaws, 2028 presidential candidates, why he thinks superforecasters will continue to outperform AI for the next decade, why more athletes haven't come out as gay, redesigning the NBA, what mentors he needs now, the cultural and psychological peculiarities of Bay area intellectual communities, why Canada can't win a Stanley Cup, the politics of immigration in Europe and America, what he'll work on next, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video on the new dedicated Conversations with Tyler channel. Recorded July 23rd, 2025 . Help keep the show ad free by donating today! Other ways to connect Follow us on X and Instagram Follow Tyler on X Follow Nate on X <span style= "font-size: 12pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sa

As promised, a live chat with Nate Silver without a single mention of either poker or sports — or, for that matter, monetary policy! Thank you Laura Fenton , Michael Chang , Marty Neumeier , J Dziak , Sonya Lea , and many others for tuning into my live video with Nate Silver ! Join me for my next live video in the app. Get full access to Paul Krugman at paulkrugman.substack.com/subscribe

Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commissioner, how code-switching as a gay man of his cohort can translate to success, and defying the odds by quitting his first job to play online poker. Nate and Dax talk about learning statistical models as a hobbyist because academics don’t have the street smarts, the phenomenon of sore winners in tech, and the adage that the more shabbily you show up for your first meeting the more trustworthy you are. Nate explains that the dopamine felt especially by men during a winning streak is effectively a narcotic, how figures like Sam Bankman-Fried are kind of degenerate gamblers at heart, and why the new alpha move in industry is just to trust your gut. Follow Armchair Expert on the Wondery App or wherever you get your podcasts. Watch new content on YouTube or listen to Armchair Expert early and ad-free by joining Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify. Start your free trial by visiting wondery.com/links/armchair-expert-with-dax-shepard/ now. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info .

Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations in Silver's model 30:51: 50-50 election forecasts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here: https://partiful.com/e/tgYHaoevQ78X7hpnDUHA

Trump won, Silicon Valley is Moneyballing everything, and the worldview of the most famous political nerd on Earth... is eating the world. But Nate Silver still wants to prove people wrong: on what the 2016 and 2024 elections really told us; his falling out with the Left; and how tech billionaires are more irrational than they like to admit. Also: Elon Musk totaling a car, Peter Thiel believing in destiny, and Neymar playing poker. Buy Nate Silver's new book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/ Subscribe to Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Trump won, Silicon Valley is Moneyballing everything, and the worldview of the most famous political nerd on Earth... is eating the world. But Nate Silver still wants to prove people wrong: on what the 2016 and 2024 elections really told us; his falling out with the Left; and how tech billionaires are more irrational than they like to admit. Also: Elon Musk totaling a car, Peter Thiel believing in destiny, and Neymar playing poker. Buy Nate Silver's new book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/ Subscribe to Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Election Day is tomorrow! More than 75 million people have already voted. And a slew of new polls released over the weekend show good news for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. Naturally, former President Donald Trump responded by railing against the polls at his rallies, even though polls aren’t predictions, and both candidates have a good shot at winning Tuesday. Nate Silver, polling guru and author of the Substack newsletter “Silver Bulletin,” stops by to tell us what the polls are — and aren’t — telling us ahead of Election Day.Also on the show: Abbas Alawieh, a Michigan resident and co-founder of the ‘Uncommitted’ movement,’ talks about how his fellow activists are feeling as they cast their ballots. And Crooked Correspondent Josie Duffy Rice breaks down election lawsuits in Georgia.Show Notes: Learn more about The Uncommitted Movement – https://shorturl.at/Qe3UX Check out Nate Silver's polling – https://www.natesilver.net/ Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/3kk4nyz8 What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/ For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday

At the moment of this episode’s release, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in election polls. How do you embrace risk, make informed decisions, and be prepared for any possible changes? In this episode, FiveThirtyEight founder and author of “On the Edge” Nate Silver discusses with Reason magazine’s Editor-at-Large Nick Gillespie his thoughts on which direction the 2024 election may go and the ways risk-takers cultivate power and drive change. Our Guest: Nate Silver , Leading Political Forecaster; Best-Selling Author; Founder and Former Editor-in-Chief of FiveThirtyEight Nick Gillespie , Editor-at-Large of Reason , is the guest moderator. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Election forecaster Nate Silver gives his takes on: how effective altruism could be better, the stark tradeoffs we faced with COVID, whether the 13 Keys to the White House is "junk science," how to tell whose election predictions are better, and if venture capitalists really take risks. This is a selection of highlights from episode #204 of The 80,000 Hours Podcast : Nate Silver on making sense of SBF, and his biggest critiques of effective altruism . These aren't necessarily the most important, or even most entertaining parts of the interview — so if you enjoy this, we strongly recommend checking out the full episode. And if you're finding these highlights episodes valuable, please let us know by emailing podcast@80000hours.org . Highlights: Rob’s intro (00:00:00) Is anyone doing better at "doing good better"? (00:00:29) Is effective altruism too big to succeed? (00:02:19) The stark tradeoffs we faced with COVID (00:06:02) The 13 Keys to the White House (00:07:53) Can we tell whose election predictions are better? (00:11:40) Do venture capitalists really take risks? (00:16:29) Highlights put together by Simon Monsour, Milo McGuire, and Dominic Armstrong

Larry weighs in on his recent tour, the newest season of ‘Reasonable Doubt’, and the upcoming presidential election. He’s then joined by writer, statistician, and founder of the site FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver to discuss his newest book ‘On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything’ (15:27). They begin their conversation by talking about why certain types of people get into gambling and the importance of preparation when going into high stakes competitions (21:08). Nate then details how he got into politics before breaking down the process of his calculations and predictions (31:44). After the break they categorize different types of gamblers into ‘fox’ and ‘hedgehog’ categories and apply these descriptors to individuals operating in society (48:43). Larry and Nate end the pod by making election and sports predictions (1:07:28). Host: Larry Wilmore Guest: Nate Silver Producers: Chris Sutton and Brandy LaPlante Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Rob Wiblin speaks with FiveThirtyEight election forecaster and author Nate Silver about his new book: On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything . Links to learn more, highlights, video, and full transcript. On the Edge explores a cultural grouping Nate dubs “the River” — made up of people who are analytical, competitive, quantitatively minded, risk-taking, and willing to be contrarian. It’s a tendency he considers himself a part of, and the River has been doing well for itself in recent decades — gaining cultural influence through success in finance, technology, gambling, philanthropy, and politics, among other pursuits. But on Nate’s telling, it’s a group particularly vulnerable to oversimplification and hubris. Where Riverians’ ability to calculate the “expected value” of actions isn’t as good as they believe, their poorly calculated bets can leave a trail of destruction — aptly demonstrated by Nate’s discussion of the extended time he spent with FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried before and after his downfall. Given this show’s focus on the world’s most pressing problems and how to solve them, we narrow in on Nate’s discussion of effective altruism (EA), which has been little covered elsewhere. Nate met many leaders and members of the EA community in researching the book and has watched its evolution online for many years. Effective altruism is the River style of doing good, because of its willingness to buck both fashion and common sense — making its giving decisions based on mathematical calculations and analytical arguments with the goal of maximising an outcome. Nate sees a lot to admire in this, but the book paints a mixed picture in which effective altruism is arguably too trusting, too utilitarian, too selfless, and too reckless at some times, while too image-conscious at others. But while everything has arguable weaknesses, could Nate actually do any better in practice? We ask him: How would Nate spend $10 billion differently than today’s philanthropists influenced by EA? Is anyone else competitive with EA in terms of impact per dollar? Does he have any big disagreements with 80,000 Hours’ advice on how to have impact? Is EA too big a tent to function? What global problems could EA be ignoring? Should EA be more willing to court controversy? Does EA’s niceness leave it vulnerable to exploitation? What moral philosophy would he have modelled EA on? Rob and Nate also talk about: Nate’s theory of Sam Bankman-Fried’s psychology. Whether we had to “raise or fold” on COVID. Whether Sam Altman and Sam Bankman-Fried are structurally similar cases or not. “Winners’ tilt.” Whether it’s selfish to slow down AI progress. The ridiculous 13 Keys to the White House. Whether prediction markets are now overrated. Whether venture capitalists talk a big talk about risk while pushing all the risk off onto the entrepreneurs they fund. And plenty more. Chapters: Cold open (00:00:00) Rob's intro (00:01:03) The interview begins (00:03:08) Sam Bankman-Fried and trust in the effective altruism community (00:04:09) Expected value (00:19:06) Similarities and differences between Sam Altman and SBF (00:24:45) How would Nate do EA differently? (00:31:54) Reservations about utilitarianism (00:44:37) Game theory equilibrium (00:48:51) Differences between EA culture and rationalist culture (00:52:55) What would Nate do with $10 billion to donate? (00:57:07) COVID strategies and tradeoffs (01:06:52) Is it selfish to slow down AI progress? (01:10:02) Dem

Professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us a lot about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century, says statistician and analyst Nate Silver. He embedded himself within the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman and many others and now comes to Commonwealth Club World Affairs to share insight into a range of issues that affect everyone, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI. In his bestselling book The Signal and the Noise , Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in his riveting new book On the Edge , Silver investigates "The River"—those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape and dominate so much of modern life. The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset—including the flaws in their thinking—is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk; appreciation of uncertainty; affinity for numbers; skill at de-coupling; self-reliance and a distrust of the conventional wisdom. For these people, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale. Join us in-person or online as Silver takes you behind the scenes from casinos to venture capital firms to the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A Note from James:"Are you a member of the river or the village? That's the question we're diving into today. Nate Silver-yes, the Nate Silver from 538-joins us with Maria Konnikova, a master of poker and decision-making. Members of the 'river,' as Nate describes, are rational thinkers. They make decisions based on probabilities and data, not emotions. So, are you in the river or the village? Because today, we're talking about how to think differently about risk-whether it's betting on an election, making an investment, or even figuring out how to navigate life. Here's what you need to know."Episode Description:In this episode, James Altucher brings together two brilliant minds: Nate Silver, known for his predictive prowess, and Maria Konnikova, a renowned psychologist and poker player. The trio delves into how they make calculated decisions when the stakes are high. With examples from poker, elections, and everyday life, they discuss how we can all navigate a world full of uncertainty. What does it mean to be a rational thinker? And how can understanding probabilities make you a better decision-maker? Join them as they explore strategies for improving your risk assessment, leveraging data, and making choices that keep you in the game longer.What You'll Learn:Risk Assessment Tools: How to analyze risk effectively using concepts from poker and data science.The River vs. The Village: Are you making rational decisions, or are you just playing it safe? Find out how to challenge your instincts.Understanding Probabilities: How to apply probabilistic thinking to everyday situations, from career moves to investments.Avoiding Cognitive Traps: Learn about common mental biases that can lead to poor decisions and how to overcome them.Betting on Your Choices: Practical advice on evaluating your options to maximize the chances of success.Timestamped Chapters:[01:30] - Are You a Member of the River or the Village?[03:21] - Meet the Guests: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova[10:09] - Maria's Journey into Poker and Game Theory[14:59] - Understanding Risk and Decision Making[27:55] - The Challenge of Trust and Information in the Digital Age[31:04] - Nate's Transition from Poker to Election Forecasting[42:37] - The Evolution of Poker Strategy[54:15] - Betting Markets and Inefficiencies[1:00:58] - Decision Making and Risk in Poker and LifeAdditional Resources:Maria Konnikova's Book: The Biggest BluffNate Silver's Newsletter: The Silver BulletinMaria Konnikova's Newsletter: The LeapNate Silver's Book: On the EdgePodcast: Risky Business with Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists

Can we still accurately model elections in such chaotic times? Are prediction markets the future of news? Nate Silver thinks so - Nate is a renowned election analyst, author and former professional poker player. He's the founder of FiveThirtyEight, whose statistical models revolutionized election forecasting, earning him national acclaim. His two books "On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything." and "Signal in Noise" are inspirations for today's Win-Win conversation with Liv and Igor. We discuss polling accuracy, the importance of prediction markets like Polymarket, poker thinking, solutions to political polarization, and of course his latest predictions on Trump vs Kamala. We also hear his theory on "The River" and "The Village" communities, defined by their opposing perspectives on risk - and how these contrasting worldviews shape approaches to everything from public health policy to technology. Chapters 00:01:34 - Predicting Elections 00:06:49 - Trump Assassination Attempt 00:11:45 - Prediction Markets 00:21:13 - Nate’s New Book on Risk 00:25:53 - Institutional screwups on COVID 00:33:30 - Why are People so Averse to Probabilities? 00:35:27 - Silicon Valley’s Blind Spots 00:40:43 - Excessively Risky Behavior 00:44:29 - Regulations 00:48:55 - Finding Common Ground 01:00:18 - Alternative Voting Structures 01:06:50 - Signal vs Noise in the AI age 01:12:15 - Advice for Sharpening Your Models 01:22:25 - Nate’s Maxims For A Win-Win Future Links: ♾️ Nate’s Blog: https://www.natesilver.net/ ♾️ Nate’s Twitter: https://x.com/NateSilver538/ Credits: ♾️ Hosted and Produced by Liv Boeree and Igor Kurganov ♾️

Nate Silver is a statistician, writer of Silver Bulletin, and Founder of FiveThirtyEight. No one truly knows who will win an election, but if anyone does, it's Nate. He is the man behind the most accurate, sophisticated polling data assessments in America and has an insight into modern culture like no one else. Expect to learn why this election cycle differs from other ones, just how complex election prediction models are, what the most important topics of this election are, whether there is ever a chance for a 3rd party option to become president, the role of the media in determining who wins and much more… Sponsors: See discounts for all the products I use and recommend: https://chriswillx.com/deals Get $350 off the Pod 4 Ultra at https://eightsleep.com/modernwisdom (use code MODERNWISDOM) Get the Whoop 4.0 for free and get your first month for free at https://join.whoop.com/modernwisdom (automatically applied at checkout) Get a 20% discount on Nomatic’s amazing luggage at https://nomatic.com/modernwisdom (automatically applied at checkout) Extra Stuff: Get my free reading list of 100 books to read before you die: https://chriswillx.com/books Try my productivity energy drink Neutonic: https://neutonic.com/modernwisdom Nate's Newsletter - Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/ Episodes You Might Enjoy: #577 - David Goggins - This Is How To Master Your Life: https://tinyurl.com/43hv6y59 #712 - Dr Jordan Peterson - How To Destroy Your Negative Beliefs: https://tinyurl.com/2rtz7avf #700 - Dr Andrew Huberman - The Secret Tools To Hack Your Brain: https://tinyurl.com/3ccn5vkp - Get In Touch: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact - Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nate Silver is back on the felt, but there’s a lot more than poker in his new book, On the Edge . He gets deep into it with Andrew and Carlos, discussing everything from the physiology of poker to coaching with Andrew to a an accidental prediction about Carlos. We previously interviewed Nate Silver on Episode 318 . Other recommended episodes: Maria Konnikova Ed Miller Carlos Welch Jamal Hanson Matt Glassman Stoyan Obreshkov Jon “Apestyles” Van Fleet Isaac Haxton Dick Carson Tom McEvoy Game Theory and Civil Rights Support the podcast and get daily strategy discussions by subscribing to Thinking Poker Daily . Our latest poker strategy video, reviewing Andrew’s ACR Sunday Special win, is now available from The Nitcast Store . GTO Wizard AI has just received a new update: ICM Postflop Solutions! This new feature will allow you to: Study ICM solutions for any postflop scenario, instantly. Dominate Classic MTTs, PKOs, Mystery Bounties, Freezeouts, and Satellites. And exploit by nodelocking ranges and taking advantage of opponents’ ICM mistakes. Receive 10% off your GTO Wizard subscription when you use this link to sign up to GTO Wizard today and run deeper in your MTTs with GTO Wizard AI! <section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5cba5599 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="5cba5599" data-element_type="section" data-e-type="section" d

What can professional risk-takers — poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors— teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century? In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise , statistician Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in his timely and riveting new book, On the Edge , Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape — and dominate — so much of modern life. People in "The River" have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset — including the flaws in their thinking — is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk, appreciation of uncertainty, affinity for numbers, skill at decoupling, self-reliance, and a distrust of conventional wisdom. For those in The River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale. Taking us behind the scenes from casinos to venture capital firms, and from the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of power brokers and risk-takers. Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise . He writes the Substack Silver Bulletin . Clayton Page Aldern is a senior data reporter at Grist. A neuroscientist turned environmental journalist, he holds a master's in neuroscience and a master's in public policy from the University of Oxford, where he studied as a Rhodes Scholar. He is also a research affiliate at the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology at the University of Washington. With Gregg Colburn, he is the author of Homelessness Is a Housing Problem . His book The Weight of Nature , on the effects of climate change on brain health, is out now from Dutton. <img class="cross-promo" src= "https://townhallseattle.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/on-the-edge-197x300.jpg" alt= "Book cover: A green background with a diagonal white stripe separating the title and author's name. The title "On the Edge" is at the top in large black text with subtitle "The Art of Risking Everything" underneath. Below the white stripe, small text says "Bestselling author of The Signal.

Every career involves choices; every choice involves risk. But being able to size up those risks, and think coolly about which are worth taking, can make the process of choosing between options much easier. The problem? Most of us aren’t actually very good at evaluating risk. In this episode, Isabel Berwick speaks to statistician, writer and sometime poker player Nate Silver to find out how we can take better risks in our careers. Silver, founder of analysis website FiveThirtyEight and author of the new book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything ’ explains why fear plays an outsize risk in our decision making, how to recover when a bet doesn’t pan out and why your 60s might not be the time to avoid risk. Want more? Free links: On the Edge by Nate Silver — the risk-takers who beat the market We need to be better at predicting bad outcomes Interview with Nate Silver Presented by Isabel Berwick, produced by Mischa Frankl-Duval, mixed by Simon Panayi. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s head of audio. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nate Silver is an American statistician, poker player, and New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- but Some Don't . Nate’s latest book is On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything , where he dives into the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and more. These professional high risk-takers fall into the group that Nate describes as “The River”, a community of people that have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society. Nate came to the Daily Stoic studio to talk with Ryan about incentives in large media corporations with independent media, ethical challenges of audience capture, financial motives in journalism, conflicts between truth-seeking and profitability, the dynamics of tech versus traditional media, effective altruism, and much more. Nate is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and The Noise . 📚 Grab a signed copy of On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver| https://www.thepaintedporch.com/ Subscribe to Nate Silver’s Substack: Silver Bulletin Connect with Nate Silver on X: @NateSilver538 🎟 Ryan Holiday is going on tour! Grab tickets for London, Rotterdam, Dublin, Vancouver, and Toronto at ryanholiday.net/tour ✉️ Want Stoic wisdom delivered to your inbox daily? Sign up for the FREE Daily Stoic email at https://dailystoic.com/dailyemail 🏛 Get Stoic inspired books, medallions, and prints to remember these lessons at the Daily Stoic Store: https://store.dailystoic.com/ 📱 Follow us: <a hr

Nate Silver's remarkable career has seen him conquer many seemingly unrelated worlds: professional poker, sports journalism, and the political forecasting that made him a star of US politics. He joined us on stage in London to reveal the ideas that glue these together - an idea that helps to explain how power, business, and politics really work. There is a new paradigm of power with global importance. This power belongs to a new class of professional risk-takers – including VCs, gamblers, tech moguls like Elon Musk and Sam Altman, and crypto-kings like Sam Bankman-Fried. This class, which Silver calls “The River”, drives progress: but these individuals can also cause chaos and deepen disparity. And despite plenty of bad press, the risk-takers are winning against their counterparts in government, academia and the media… As a professional risk taker and member of 'The River' himself, Nate Silver joined award-winning presenter Jeremy Vine to uncover how this new class is changing the landscape of politics, power, and technology as we know it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Labor Day is a critical mile-marker on the road to the general election, now just two months away. Pollsters are busy processing data and making predictions, but nobody really knows whether America will end up with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the White House. Nate Silver is one of America's most well-respected pollsters. The former poker player set up FiveThirtyEight, a polling company and now writes the Silver Bullet on Substack. Nate Silver's latest book On the Edge: the Art of Risking Everything takes a look at two mindsets: the River and the Village. Nate joins Freddy Gray on the Americano show to discuss probability in sport and politics, how luck is often undervalued in politics, whether VP picks are an key decision in general elections and why J.D. Vance may be a bad choice for Trump.

This week is all about predictions, polling and risk taking - what do current polls tell us about who might win the 2024 presidential race? We get a behind the scenes look at how statisticians make their predictions, and how accurate they are. Our guest Nate Silver developed a forecasting system which correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election in 49 out of 50 states in 2008, and all 50 states in 2012. He also talks to Marianna and Sarah about his new book on risk - On the Edge - and his journey from professional poker playing to politics. HOSTS: Sarah Smith, BBC North America Editor Marianna Spring, BBC Disinformation & Social Media Correspondent GUEST: Nate Silver, U.S. election forecaster and stastician. Founder of FiveThirtyEight and the Silver bulletin, and author of On The Edge. GET IN TOUCH: • Join our online community: https://discord.gg/qSrxqNcmRB • Send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp to +44 330 123 9480 • Email Americast@bbc.co.uk • Or use #Americast This episode was made by Keiligh Baker with Purvee Pattni, Catherine Fusillo and Claire Betzer . The technical producer was Mike Regaard. The series producer is Purvee Pattni. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham. If you want to be notified every time we publish a new episode, please subscribe to us on BBC Sounds by hitting the subscribe button on the app. You can now listen to Americast on a smart speaker. If you want to listen, just say "Ask BBC Sounds to play Americast”. It works on most smart speakers. US Election Unspun: Sign up for Anthony’s BBC newsletter: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68093155 Americast is part of the BBC News Podcasts family of podcasts. The team that makes Americast also makes lots of other podcasts, including The Global Story, The Today Podcast, and of course Newscast and Ukrainecast. If you enjoy Americast (and if you're reading this then you hopefully do), then we think that you will enjoy some of our other pods too. See links below. The Global Story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/w13xtvsd The Today Podcast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p0gg4k6r Newscast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/series/p05299nl Ukrainecast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p0bqztzm

Labor Day is a critical mile-marker on the road to the general election, now just two months away. Pollsters are busy processing data and making predictions, but nobody really knows whether America will end up with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the White House. Nate Silver is one of America's most well-respected pollsters. The former poker player set up FiveThirtyEight, a polling company and now writes the Silver Bullet on Substack. Nate Silver's latest book On the Edge: the Art of Risking Everything takes a look at two mindsets: the River and the Village. Nate joins Freddy Gray on the Americano show to discuss probability in sport and politics, how luck is often undervalued in politics, whether VP picks are an key decision in general elections and why J.D. Vance may be a bad choice for Trump. Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more. For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts . Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

American political forecaster Nate Silver explains who will win the US election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, why he thinks Elon Musk’s comments during the riots in the UK were acceptable, and how AI will change the world. Silver is the founder of the influential polling and politics website FiveThirtyEight, but now writes on his website Silver Bulletin. He’s just published a new book called ‘On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything’ where he argues that “professional risk takers” such as low-stakes poker players, crypto kings, venture-capital billionaires and hedge fund managers are “winning” in American society, and what they can teach us about handling the uncertainties of the 21st century. In this episode of Ways to Change the World, American election forecaster, Nate Silver, tells Krishnan Guru-Murthy the chances of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump winning the US election, why he thinks Elon Musk’s tweets on X during the 2024 UK summer riots were part and parcel of having freedom of speech, and the transformative impact of AI on the world. Produced by Silvia Maresca.

Comedian Gary Vider joins the show to discuss his podcast “#1 Dad” and his con-man father who inspired it. They also talk about how he got his start in stand-up and the comedians who helped him along in his early days. Next, Leah Knauer returns to read the news including stories about JLo filing for divorce from Ben Affleck, a colonoscopy doctor allegedly not hearing a patient screaming because he didn’t have his hearing aid in, a new non-dating app that connects groups of people just for meals, and a survey that found Fresno to have the most chivalrous men in California. Finally, statistician and professional poker player Nate Silver makes his first ACS appearance to talk about his new book “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” They also talk about his site FiveThreeEight getting bought by Disney and the benefits of leaving the mainstream media in favor of Substack. Then they discuss what Nate’s model predicts for the upcoming presidential election and his relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried. For more with Gary Vider: ● Listen to his podcast: #1 Dad ● INSTAGRAM: @garyvider ● TWITTER: @garyvider ● WEBSITE: http://garyvider.com For more with Nate Silver: ● Buy his new book: “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything” available everywhere. ● SUBSTACK: Silver Bulletin newsletter ● TWITTER: @natesilver538 Thank you for supporting our sponsors: ● http://SimpliSafe.com/Adam ● http://QualiaLife.com/Adam ● http://OReillyAuto.com/Adam ● Hims.com/ADAM See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What can we learn from professional risk-takers—poker players, hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors— about how to navigate the uncertainty of the twenty first century? Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, seeks to answer that question in his new book “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” In Silver’s world view, risk takers are adept with details and planning, they are not motivated by money, they practice conscientious contrarianism, and they are all around us. We talk to Silver about his book, his poker playing and what the polls tell us about the November elections. Guests: Nate Silver, author, "On the Edge:" The Art of Risking Everything", Silver founded the website FiveThirtyEight, and is also the author of the bestselling book, "The Signal and the Noise." His newsletter is titled "Silver Bulletin"