Stanley Druckenmiller

今天是我们的系列节目 《雨森的创投观察》 第2集。 在 《雨森的创投观察》第1集（我们节目124集） 中，真格基金管理合伙人戴雨森预言称，2026年的关键词是“The Year of R”，他彼时较为谨慎，觉得2026年将是一个现实与回调之年。并在过年前清空了所有二级市场股票。 现在过去了小半年，很多人说他的一部分观点有点打脸。 雨森经过了短暂的内心挣扎，决定还是继续录制我们的系列节目。他将持续分享自己的投资思考。 OUTLINE: Strong Opinions, Weakly Held 00:02:00 雨森回应第一集“被打脸”往事：“Strong Opinions, Weakly Held” 00:06:50 我的二级市场投资偶像是Stanley Freeman Druckenmiller 00:09:07 在《雨森的创投观察》第1集，我说对了什么？说错了什么？ 00:13:06 理解Anthropic的选择、组织和价值观（Dario的memo和对齐） 00:18:57 Harness由模型公司第一方地来做，更有优势吗？ 00:20:07 Anthropic vs OpenAI，Claude Code vs Codex 00:23:17 “Year of Return”，到今天return的问题并没有真正被解答 好的Harness是很有生命力的，Harness本身更像OS，模型更像处理器 00:34:05 重新总结2026年的大叙事、大变化 00:37:14 在模型外面包了越来越多的层次，“壳”早已不是简单的壳：model - harness - context - runtime 00:41:30 通过Harness带来的数据也能够反哺模型的训练，形成数据飞轮。Chatbot没有数据飞轮，是因为普通人的聊天很难给模型带来新的知识。但Agentic模型要的就是帮用户解决真实问题，用户真实使用产品的轨迹是很好的训练资料 00:44:45 之前节目中罗福莉和姚顺宇的观点差异（关于Harness重要性），其实不矛盾 00:46:26 一个好的Harness是很有生命力的。按照出现顺序，像Manus、Claude Code、OpenClaw、Codex、Hermes是用户喜欢的Coding Agent Harness，甚至说ChatGPT可以认为是GPT API的第一个 Harness 00:52:25 我认为Harness本身更像是OS：之前广密有一个比方说，模型公司是新生代的OS，但我感觉，模型更像是驱动OS的处理器，我们看到有越来越多的应用是跟用户的Harness对接，而并非直接跟用户使用的底层模型去进行耦合 00:55:24 一个反直觉的现象是，勇敢地去做创新，勇敢地去做通用的，是有大机会的 00:57:33 我的第一个暴论：“AGI是在缩水的” 00:59:20 模型能力提升会不会向下吞并Harness的空间？有可能出现Agent的网络效应 字节系创始人，要把在字节学的东西，自己颠覆自己 01:04:03 2026年各个基金投的创业公司变多了，估值也变高了 01:04:07 创业者要做大厂看不上的事情，比如曾经的“套壳”、“开源” 01:10:50 好的创始人和好的方向有时候是共振的 01:21:26 “你原来的护城河可能会变成你的软肋” 01:26:24 对于AI产品，大DAU应该成为目标吗？ 大DAU vs 高质量任务，优化哪个指标？ 01:28:51 “AI有点像外星人，来到了人类的世界”，这里面的机会 01:34:35 AI时代的组织与组织变革 01:38:51 “下一个字节跳动级的公司可能长得不像字节” 01:41:42 我的第二个暴论：“字节系创始人，要把在字节学的东西，自己颠覆自己” 01:42:37 我眼中的AI创业框架和大机会 01:48:01 美国vs中国创业端对比 02:01:30 思考需要刻意练习，创新需要刻意练习 LINKS： 我们的播客在 小宇宙 、 Apple Podcast 、Spotify等全音频平台播出； 我们的视频播客在 Bilibili 、 小红书 、视频号、抖音等全视频平台播出； 如果你想服用文字版，请搜索我们工作室的公众号：语言即世界language is world。 DISCLAIMER: 本内容不作为投资建议。 CONTACT: xiaojunzhang@lisw.ai Jump into the new world-and explore with us! 😉

Disclosures reveal that Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh maintains a deep financial and professional connection with billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller. Through his Vicarage Corporation, Warsh holds over $100 million in the Juggernaut Fund, an investment vehicle that mirrors the aggressive, growth-oriented trades of Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office. Full report: https://www.procapinsights.com/ ProCap Insights is a research division of ProCap Financial. This podcast is for informational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute individualized financial, investment, tax, legal, accounting, or other professional advice. You should consult with qualified professionals before making significant financial decisions. You are solely responsible for any decisions you make using or based on information provided herein. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Duquesne Family Office CEO Stanley Druckenmiller says he was perplexed by the Fed’s pivot, and that the Federal Reserve “fumbled on the five yard line with the game on the line.” In an extended interview, Druckenmiller discusses his famously successful investing track record and his bets on AI. SEC Chair Gary Gensler has put pressure on crypto, recently delivering “Wells Notice” to Robinhood and Consensys ; the crypto community is firing back, and he’s ready to defend the SEC’s perspective on Ethereum and its role in protecting investors. Plus, Hims & Hers CEO walked back some of his comments on hiring pro-Palestinian protesters after Wall Street and Main Street pushed back on him and his stock. Stanley Druckenmiller - 4:15 Gary Gensler - 38:40 In this episode: Gary Gensler, @GaryGensler Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie

Legendary investor and hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller explains his concerns about the U.S. debt and government aid for Ukraine and Israel. Druckenmiller, billionaire philanthropist and CEO of Duquesne Capital Management, weighs in on Janet Yellen’s leadership of the Treasury, American exceptionalism, and “drunken sailor” spending. Plus, a U.S. jury ruled that the National Association of Realtors and other brokerages conspired to artificially inflate commissions for agent sales, and Sam Bankman-Fried’s fraud trial is winding down. Stanley Druckenmiller: 12:13 In this episode: Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick Cameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY

In this episode of Podfast, Stan Druckenmiller, a highly successful investor, discusses the challenges of making economic forecasts in the current period due to factors like extreme monetary policy, COVID-19, and geopolitical events. He highlights the historical correlation between low interest rates and difficult economic times. Druckenmiller expresses concerns about a potential hard landing, citing prolonged asset bubbles and risks in commercial real estate. He acknowledges the uncertainty but emphasizes the odds leaning towards a hard landing rather than a soft landing. The interview touches on the implications of massive monetary stimulus and the potential for a combination of inflationary and deflationary outcomes.

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller: How to Invest in 2023? Stanley Druckenmiller is a legendary billionaire investor who is know for macroeconomic forecasts. Credit: Sohn 2023

Glaubt man Stanley Druckenmiller halten wir auf turbulente Zeiten zu! Nachdem wir uns in der letzten Episode mit den von Druckenmiller prognostizierten Sorgen rund um Ausgaben für den Sozialstaat und den Sorgen² mit Blick auf die Demografie beschäftigt haben, nutzen wir den Rückenwind und schauen uns die kurz- bis mittelfristigen Prognosen dieses Starinvestors an... was dann aus Anlegersicht die Sorgen³ wären. Denn selbst für dieses Jahr, in dem doch die Big-Tech Konzerne so fleißig hinter dem Gesamtmarkt aufräumen, sieht Druckenmiller wenig gutes auf uns zukommen. Im Zuge der 2023er Sohn Investment Conference tauschten sich Druckenmiller und Kiril Sokoloff zum aktuellen Marktgeschehen aus und... so wirklich gut kommt der Markt dabei nicht weg. Was uns dann auch schon zu dem Zitat bringt, das diese Komplette Folge tragen muss: "The biggest and broadest bubble in history". Denn zum einen sieht der Mann nicht wirklich ein Soft-Landing und zum anderen gibt er der FED sehr wohl die Schuld an der (erwarteten) Rezession. In dieser Episode schauen wir uns also für den Start die Gründe an, die Druckenmiller als Auslöser der harten Zeiten für den breiten Aktienmarkt (und viele andere Märkte) benennt. Im Anschluss (und hier wird es spannend) unterhalten wir uns über die Anregungen die uns the Druck für eine Kapitalallokation in einem Hard-Landing Szenario gibt und schauen uns an, inwiefern seine "Anlagetipps" für uns als Privatinvestoren hilfreich sein können. Als Bonusrunden besprechen wir dann ab hier auch noch die Themen Depression, Anlageklasse für die Zeit des Aufschwungs und die Gefahren für den Dollar (die dann die Sorgen²³ für alle Leute werden würden, die sich aktuell mit US-Staatsanleihen eingedeckt haben). Es wird also eine spannende Runde mit ziemlich praktischem Bezug für alle Leute die nicht ganz so optimistisch sind, dass die NVIDIA Aktie den S&P500 durch das komplette Jahr 2023 bringen wird. Die Agenda: 1. Soft oder Hard Landing. Was spricht für und was spricht gegen den Erfolg der FED? 2. Wie stellt sich Stanley Druckenmiller ein "Hard-Landing" vor? 3. Buy & Hold - Welche Gefahren sieht Druckenmiller bei den Gewinnmargen der US-Aktien? 4. Trade-Idee Nr.1: Kupfer! 5. Trade-Idee Nr.2: Immobilien 6. Trade-Idee Nr.3: Growth, Bio-Tech & AI 7. Wieso US-Staatsanleihen mehr Downside als Upside haben. 8. Druckenmillers Play-Book für die aktuelle Marktphase. 9. Die größte Investment-Chance Deines Leben! (Fazit) 10. Zweiter Blick in den Chat mit Grüßen, Erholungen und tollen Zitaten. 11. Irren sich die Experten und die Privatanleger haben Recht? Das Denken in Dekarden. 12. Zurück in den Chat und offizielles Ende ES LOHNT SICH ALSO MEHR ALS JEMALS ZUVOR DIESEM PODCAST EINE 5 STERNE BEWERTUNG ZU GEBEN!!

Stanley Druckenmiller is one of the most successful financial investors in the world that you've never heard of. All the greats are people you don't hear much from, but it is time to listen when you do. In this interview at Delivering Alpha, Druckenmiller has much to say about the FED, its policies, and what it all means for you and me. Join me today as we take a closer look at the trouble on the horizon for America and the world as our financial alchemy unravels and spreads around the globe. Stanley Druckenmiller at delivering alpha https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMeuzvzToPQ

In a recent interview, Stanley Druckenmiller gave his current outlook for the stock market and macroeconomic environment. His current forecasts for both are very bearish, but he's wildly bullish on one sector, and mildly bullish on another asset class. He thinks the US Fed made a huge mistake in 2021, and the repercussions are going to be felt for a long time in stock markets. Timestamps: 00:24 Who is Stanley Druckenmiller? 00:36 Key points 01:11 The US Fed’s big mistake 01:52 The cause of rapidly rising inflation 04:08 Druck’s stock market outlook 05:17 Hard landing recession 06:04 Druck’s still bullish on these 06:43 Summing up Druck Related video: Stanley Druckenmiller Interview Summary: Macro Investor Druck Predicts A Hard Landing (Recession) https://youtu.be/azNVEA6jdH4 Interview transcript referenced in this episode: https://cnb.cx/3RCnhWu Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

Welcome back to 3 More Questions , an episode series where we continue the conversation that we started last week with our featured guest. On this episode, we're talking about our interview with Stan Druckenmiller, the #1 investor in the world. Listen in to hear even more about how to see the future differently and make more strategic investments in business, philanthropy, and life. If you want a simple plan to improve as a leader, you can get one here for free — https://howleaderslead.com/plan

Welcome to How Leaders Lead where every week, you get to listen in while I interview some of the VERY best leaders in the world. I break down the key learnings so that by the end of the episode, you’ll have something simple you can apply as you develop into a better leader. That’s what this podcast is all about! Today’s guest is Stanley Druckenmiller, the #1 investor in the world. I know, that’s a big claim! But get this: during his 30 years managing money for investors, he had an average annual return of 31%. And he NEVER had a down year. So if you’re even a little interested in finance, you’re going to learn a lot from Stan – including some really practical investment advice and his take on the future of our economy. But more importantly, there’s a huge leadership lesson to learn. Stan isn’t afraid to envision the future differently than other people. He can see trends and patterns others can’t – and then he has the courage to act on them. That’s a skill EVERY leader needs to develop. Seeing the future differently allows us to spot opportunities and prepare for what’s coming. If we just go with the flow of what’s current, we’ll always just be a part of the trend, not ahead of it. You’re about to see for yourself how great leaders aren’t afraid to see the future differently. So here is my conversation with my good friend, and soon to be yours, Stanley Druckenmiller. Take your learning further. Get proven leadership advice from these (free!) resources: The How Leaders Lead App : A vast library of 90-second leadership lessons to stay sharp on the go Daily Insight Emails : One small (but powerful!) leadership principle to focus on each day Whichever you choose, you can be sure you’ll get the trusted leadership advice you need to advance your career, develop your team, and grow your business.

I summarise and comment on a recent, excellent Stanley Druckenmiller interview, conducted by Stripe co-founder John Collision. In the interview Druck gives his views on the current macroeconomic situation, the state of the stock market, inflation, the stock market as an economic predictor, Bitcoin vs gold, his bias towards growth stocks, and his overall macro bearishness. This is The Art of Value episode 101. Full interview: John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller https://youtu.be/-7sWLIybWnQ The Art of Value: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmlgXjiwAUNHyIS30dnIHBg Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6I878RawBT9rwHnVUPPHSh?si=23a140851abd4076 Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-art-of-value/id1615680017 Other Podcast Platforms: https://anchor.fm/theartofvalue Twitter: https://twitter.com/theartofvalue Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-art-of-value/ Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100082516724025 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/artofvalueinvest TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theartofvalue Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial help before making any investment decision.

I don’t listen to as many interviews and podcasts as I used to, or indeed as I should (more fool me), but this interview this week with legendary investor, Stanley Druckenmiller, happened across my desk and I highly recommend it, if you can find the time. It’s long, but well worth it. Druckenmiller founded Duquesne Capital in 1981 and closed it 2010 with some $12bn in assets. He is said to have made $260 million in 2008 alone. He was also, from 1988 to 2000, lead portfolio manager of George Soros’ Quantum Fund. (Many of the best parts of the interview regard what he learnt from Soros). There are great stories, insight and wisdom, and a great deal to learn from him. Here are some of my take-aways: In his 45 years as a chief investment officer, today’s set-up is like nothing Druckenmiller has ever seen, because the bond market is so distorted with all the central bank buying of the last 12 years. He is not sure how it pans out. Normally, if he sees a bear market, he would hide in bonds. But that is not such an obvious option, when is inflation 8% and they are only yielding 3%. (Currently he seems to be mostly on the sidelines - more on this in a moment). “Once inflation gets above 5% it has never come down unless the Fed funds rate gets above CPI. And that is currently 8%.” He doesn’t think the Fed funds can get to 8%. He is generally bearish regarding today’s markets, but also makes the point that he has an overly bearish mindset, and part of his process is managing that. 90% of his fortune, and of any good short-seller, he says came on the long side, in growth stocks (in his case). The maths is with you. Think a year ahead Stock markets are predictive - particularly companies within the stock market. The homebuilders, the truckers, retail - they can all tell you where the economy is going 6 months or a year from now. (He thinks a recession is likely). Retail investors tend to focus on what’s happening right now, and that is why they do not outperform. Current fundamentals are already reflected in the price. His advice is to focus intensely on what moves the stock price - what’s going to change 18 to 24 months from now? Will the company be in better shape? How are people going to react to that change? “My number one advice: Do not invest in the present. The present does not move stock prices. Change moves them.” He is not a fan of the diversification advocated in business schools. A big problem for investors is stale longs and stale shorts, he says. One should have a good knowledge of all asset classes and be able to switch between them. The act of doing that keeps you on your toes. It keeps you thinking and questioning. If you have an idea, it often pays to act quickly on it, then do the research later. Today markets move quickly and there is often not time to wait on a good idea. If an idea appeals intuitively and fits with his macro thinking, he tends to invest quickly and then do further research. If he is wrong, he can get out quickly. Good ideas tend to spread fast in the market - people talk. When an idea catches on, a security moves fast, erasing much of the trade potential, so it is important to be in as early as possible. Soros has spoken of this strategy in his books as well. Never mind the market, what about you? A key thing he learned from Soros is that “sizing is 70% to 80% of the equation ... Part of the equation is seeing the investment, part of the investment is seeing myself in a good trading rhythm. It’s not whether you’re right or wrong it’s how much you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” “I believe in streaks,” he says, “Like in baseball. Sometimes you’re seeing the ball, sometimes you’re not, and one my number one jobs is to know when I’m hot and when I’m not. When I’m hot,

Jack Butcher, Bilal Zaidi & Trung Phan discuss what they're finding on the edges of the internet + the latest in business, technology and memes. Watch + Subscribe on YouTube: https://youtu.be/GZTR3R-egjc Let us know what you think on Twitter: @bzaidi @trungtphan @jackbutcher Timestamps: 0:00:00 – Intro 0:03:10 – Trung Broke His MacBook 0:06:00 – Apple Dilemma 0:11:27 – Amazon Buying MGM + The Best James Bond? 0:15:23 – Amazon Prime vs Netflix, Disney + YouTube 0:22:42 – Jeff Bezos The Oreo McFlurry 0:23:50 – Asian in UK vs US 0:25:44 – The New York Times + The Athletic 0:27:08 – Cognitive Dissonance In Media + NFT Boom 0:30:54 – Jack's Take On NFTs Since March Boom 0:36:07 – Stanley Druckenmiller Interview Takeaways + View On Crypto 0:45:06 – Family Friends Asking Jack About Crypto Allocation 0:48:58 – European Exchange Rate Mechanism 0:54:15 – 1920 Germany Hyperinflation 0:55:05 – Legendary Trade: Soros + Druckenmiller Broke The Bank of England 0:59:41 – Carl Icahn, GameStop NFTs + Gary Vee 1:02:31 – Mark Cuban + Polygon/MATIC 1:06:47 – Gary Vee + Bored Ape Yaught Club 1:09:52 – Bored Ape Giveaway 1:10:48 – Biden’s $6Tril Budget Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trung Phan (@TrungTPhan) -- lead writer for The Hustle -- interviewed hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller on May 11. Widely regarded as one of the greatest investors ever, Druckenmiller famously made $1 billion in a single trade shorting the British Pound in 1992. Sam (@theSamParr) has a brief intro chat with Trung before transitioning into the 40-minute Druckenmiller Q&A, which covers: 1) the parallels between now and the Dot-com bubble; 2) the appeal of Bitcoin; 3) the first Big Tech firm likely to reach a $5T valuation; 4) what makes a great investor; and 5) Druckenmiller’s investment in fintech startup Toggle AI (which set up the interview). --------- * Want to be featured in a future episode? Drop your question/comment/criticism/love here: https://www.mfmpod.com/p/hotline/ * Support the pod by spreading the word, become a referrer here: https://refer.fm/million * Have you joined our private Facebook group yet? Go to https://www.facebook.com/groups/ourfirstmillion and join thousands of other entrepreneurs and founders scheming up ideas. --------- Show notes: * (8:25) Lessons from the Dot-com Bubble * (17:40) What’s the first Big Tech company likely to reach a $5T valuation? * (19:25) What’s the biggest risk to the equity markets? * (21:55) What are the long-term effects of the Wall Street Bets saga? * (24:20) How he uses Toggle AI in his investing process * (26:50) What makes a great investor? * (35:20) What is the appeal of Bitcoin? * (42:20) His thoughts on Dogecoin * (44:20) Advice for 20-year olds

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:00 – Weekly recap of performance 05:15 – Top tweets (lengthy discussion of Druckenmiller interview) 35:00 – Question 1: Barry; Do you use synthetic instrume